Breaking down the four-team race at the top of the Eastern Conference

Entering Wednesday’s games, there are 12 days and just 96 games remaining in the 2021-22 regular season. And there is still much to be decided.

Individually, there are incredibly close races for Kia Most Valuable Player, Kia Rookie of the Year and the league scoring title that are being tracked on a daily basis.

Collectively, so far only three teams have clinched a playoff berth, while five teams have been mathematically eliminated. Four teams have a chance to punch their ticket to the postseason on an 11-game Wednesday night.

There are teams trying to get into the Play-In Tournament (7-10 seeds in each conference), there are teams trying to rise out of the Play-In and secure a guaranteed playoff spot (1-6 seeds in each conference), then there are the battles for playoff position, home-court advantage and securing tiebreakers that may be necessary come April 10.

That brings us to the four-team race happening at the top of the Eastern Conference standings – as Miami, Milwaukee, Boston and Philadelphia are currently separated by just 1.5 games with less than two weeks remaining in the regular season.

Eastern Conference top 4 – through games played on March 29

Miami Heat (48-28)
Milwaukee Bucks (47-28), 0.5 games back
Boston Celtics (47-29), 1.0 games back
Philadelphia 76ers (46-29), 1.5 games back

With the teams bunched so tightly, even a single game can alter the standings. On Tuesday, the Milwaukee Bucks defeated the Philadelphia 76ers behind Giannis’ Antetokounmpo’s 40 points and game-sealing block on Joel Embiid in the closing seconds. The result of that game not only clinched the season series (and thus the head-to-head tiebreaker) for the Bucks over the Sixers, it also moved Milwaukee to second in the East and Philly to fourth. Had James Harden’s 3-point attempt gone down before Embiid’s putback attempt was blocked, these teams could be flip-flopped in the standings.

We have another head-to-head meeting on Wednesday as the Celtics host the Heat (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). While Boston has already won the season series (and tiebreaker) by winning the first two matchups between the teams this season, the winner of this game will take over first place in the East at the end of the night. Either Miami will win and increase its lead over Boston and idle Milwaukee and Philly, or Boston will win and match Miami’s record at 48-29 and hold No. 1 via tiebreaker.

With a race this fluid that is changing on a nightly basis, there are many questions that come into play: Which team has the toughest (or easiest) schedule the rest of the way? How many head-to-head matchups between these teams are left? Which team holds the tiebreakers over the other contenders?

Miami Heat (48-28, clinched Southeast Division)

Remaining schedule

Miami has six games remaining in the regular season, with just two at home (they are 27-12 at home this season) and four on the road (21-16), including one back-to-back. Their remaining opponents have a combined win percentage of .509, with five of their final six games coming against opponents over .500, with the only exception coming in the regular-season finale against Orlando. Among the four teams in this race, Miami has the second-easiest schedule based on opponent win percentage.

In terms of tiebreakers, the Heat will lose their season series to Boston regardless of Wednesday’s outcome, but the Heat are tied 2-2 with both Philadelphia and Milwaukee. As we move past head-to-head in the tiebreaker scenarios, Miami has two advantages: they have already won their division and they currently have the top conference record of any team in the East.

Milwaukee Bucks (47-28, Central Division leader)

Remaining schedule

Milwaukee has seven games remaining in the regular season with three coming at home (26-12) and four on the road (21-16); they also have two back-to-backs, but they are both split with one game at home and the other on the road. In terms of strength of schedule, Milwaukee faces the second-toughest schedule of the four teams in the race as their remaining opponents have a .522 win percentage. The Bucks have five games remaining against teams over .500 and just two (Detroit and LA Clippers) under .500.

The Bucks clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker with Philadelphia on Tuesday (winning the season series 2-1), they are tied with Miami (2-2) and currently trail Boston (1-2) with one final head-to-head matchup on April 7 that is certainly a game to circle on the calendar. While the Bucks have not clinched the Central Division, they do hold a commanding 3.5-game lead over Chicago, in case that tiebreaker is needed at the end of the season. Milwaukee (.617) trails both Miami (.652) and Boston (.638) in conference win percentage.

Boston Celtics (47-29, Atlantic Division leader)

Remaining schedule

The Celtics have the toughest schedule of any of the top four teams in the East as their remaining opponents have a combined win percentage of .548 and four of their final six games come against teams that are not just over .500, but over .600 so far this season. Boston’s remaining schedule is split evenly between home (26-12) and road (21-17) and includes head-to-head matchups with both Miami (Wednesday) and Milwaukee (April 7).

Boston already clinched the season series with Miami (2-0 entering Wednesday) and can clinch the series with Milwaukee (2-1 lead) when they meet next Thursday; it will be the second night of a back-to-back for Boston. The Celtics split their season with the Sixers (2-2) as the two also remain in contention for the Atlantic Division title with Boston holding a slim 0.5 game edge at this point. Boston has been the best team in the East since the calendar flipped to 2022 (30-10 since Jan. 1) as the chart below illustrates their dramatic rise, but they were just dealt a blow with Robert Williams III expected to miss 4-6 weeks due to a knee injury.

Philadelphia 76ers (46-29)

Remaining schedule

The Sixers are in an interesting spot following Tuesday night’s loss to the Bucks. They currently sit in fourth place behind the other three contenders, they do not own a single head-to-head tiebreaker (2-2 vs Miami, 2-2 vs. Boston, 1-2 vs. Milwaukee) and are not in a good position for any further tiebreakers as their .600 win percentage vs. the East is fourth among the top four teams and they are the only team not leading a division entering Wednesday.

However, when it comes to strength of schedule, Philadelphia has the easiest schedule remaining as their opponents have a .404 combined win percentage. The Sixers have three games against teams over .500 (Charlotte, Cleveland and Toronto) and four games against teams not only under .500 but all under .400 as they face Detroit and Indiana twice. Philly does have two back-to-backs on their schedule and three of their final seven games are at home (21-17) and four on the road (25-12) as they are one of only three teams in the East with more road wins than home wins (joining Brooklyn and Toronto).

One more factor in the race

Of course, there is another question that looms over this race in particular and it’s about a team that currently sits in eighth place in the conference and will likely need to go through the Play-In Tournament to secure its playoff spot – the Brooklyn Nets. Brooklyn was seen as title favorites entering the season, but a tumultuous season has landed them in eighth place at the moment. But with Kevin Durant healthy and Kyrie Irving just cleared to play in home games, they are not a typical first round matchup for one of the top teams in the conference.

As a reminder on the Play-In, if Brooklyn were to finish the regular season in either seventh or eighth place, they would play the 7-8 game with the winner securing the No. 7 spot in the playoffs and a matchup with the No. 2 seed. If they lose that 7-8 game, they would face the winner of the 9-10 game with the winner of that game securing the No. 8 spot in the playoffs and a matchup with the No. 1 seed. A team that finishes the regular season in either ninth or 10th place can do no better than the No. 8 seed. Entering Wednesday, Brooklyn holds a 1.0 game lead on No. 9 Charlotte (Hornets hold tiebreaker) and a 1.5 game lead on No. 10 Atlanta (Nets hold tiebreaker).

Will any of the top four teams try to avoid a first-round matchup with Brooklyn? If a team settles for the No. 3 or No. 4 seed, they would avoid the Nets in the opening round, but they would only guarantee themselves home-court advantage for the opening round. What is more important?

It will be fascinating to see how this race plays out over the final 12 days of the regular season as the seeds can shift on a daily basis, creating new potential matchups as the playoffs inch closer and closer.