Schedule breakdown: Bucks, Bulls and Lakers have toughest roads ahead

As we come out of the All-Star break, the Brooklyn Nets are in eighth place in the Eastern Conference. From that position, one of the most talented teams we’ve ever seen – the team that was a couple of inches from beating the Milwaukee Bucks last year despite two major injuries – would have to compete in the Play-In Tournament just to be the 7 or 8 seed in the playoffs.

Their situation speaks to what the Nets have been dealing with this season. Kyrie Irving missed the first 35 games and still can’t play at home because he’s not vaccinated, Kevin Durant has missed the last 17 games with a knee injury, and James Harden forced his way out. Joe Harris has also been out for three months with an ankle injury.

The Nets sitting in eighth place also speaks to the strength of the seven teams in front of them. None of them have been particularly dominant, but they’ve all been very good and none of them will be an easy out in the postseason.

The Eastern Conference playoffs should be, as the kids say, “lit,” where the seeds might not matter and every possible matchup has intrigue. But we don’t have to wait until April 16 to see the best teams in the East go head-to-head. And because there are eight of them, they’ll be playing each other a lot over the next seven weeks. In total, there are 37 regular-season games left between the top eight teams in the East.

Thus far, there have been 68, with the sixth-place Boston Celtics having the best record (12-7) in those games. The Celtics’ last three games within the group: a 30-point win over the Miami Heat, a 35-point win in Brooklyn, and a 48-point win in Philadelphia.

Games played within the top 8 teams in the East

OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions
Rem. = Remaining games within the group

GREEN = Best; ORANGE = Worst

The Celtics have the fewest games remaining within the group, but they will begin their post-break schedule back in Brooklyn on Thursday (7:30 p.m. ET, TNT).

Here are some notes on the remaining schedules for the top eight teams in the East…

The Celtics‘ second-ranked defense will be tested over the next seven weeks, with twice as many games against teams that currently rank in the top 10 offensively (10) as they have against teams that rank in the bottom 10 (5). That includes two games against the fifth-ranked Grizzlies.

The Nets have 10 games remaining within the top eight teams in the East and six of those (three at home and three on the road) are their first six games out of the break. That includes two games each against the sixth-place Celtics and seventh-place Raptors, so their best opportunity to climb out of eight is right now. If Irving remains ineligible to play in New York (both boroughs) and Toronto, he can play in only eight of the Nets’ 23 remaining games (and in only one of their final eight).

The Bulls have the league’s second-toughest remaining schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage (.543), with 14 of their 23 games against the 15 teams that currently have winning records. They currently have the league’s second-biggest differential (the Kings have the biggest) between their record vs. the 15 teams currently under .500 (27-6, .818) and their record against the top 15 (11-15, .423). Five of their 10 games within the East’s top eight will be rest-advantage games for the Bulls (2) or their opponents (3). They’re 8-1 in rest-advantage games and 6-4 in rest-disadvantage games thus far.

The Cavs have a stretch of six games in nine days from March 28 to April 5. It includes a game (the second of a back-to-back) against the Sixers. After that stretch is over, they have two days off before closing the season with games against the Nets (in Brooklyn) and Bucks (at home). While every other team in the league has at least five, the Cavs have just three games remaining against teams that currently rank in the top 10 defensively. One of those is against the Heat, part of a big back-to-back in Miami and Chicago on March 11 and 12.

The Heat Heat have the league’s second-most home-heavy remaining schedule, with 15 of their 23 games at FTX Arena. It features a seven-game homestand (March 5-18) that includes visits from the Sixers, Suns and Cavs. The Heat will have a rest advantage for both of their post-break games against the Sixers but will be at a disadvantage for both of their games against the Nets. Miami currently has the biggest differential between their winning percentage with rest (36-14, .720) and their winning percentage in the second games of back-to-backs (2-7, .222).

The Bucks have the league’s toughest remaining schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage (.554) and a league-high 15 games remaining against the 15 teams that come out of the break with winning records. They have nine games within the top eight in the East and also games against each of the top five teams in the West. That includes another Finals rematch on Sunday, March 6. The good news is that they have only two rest-disadvantage games remaining (vs. Atlanta and at Detroit), and they’ll have a rest advantage in three of their games within the top eight (including two games against the Bulls).

The Sixers are one of seven teams with only one rest-advantage game left on their schedule. And it’s their first game out of the break, when they visit Minnesota on Friday, with the Wolves having hosted Memphis the night before. Their biggest stretch of the post-break slate – four straight games within the East’s top eight – begins a week from Friday with a home-road back-to-back (vs. Cleveland, at Miami).

The Raptors have the easiest remaining schedule in this group in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage (.486), but they have the busiest post-break schedule in the league, with 25 games remaining. Thanks to two rescheduled games, it begins with a stretch of seven in 10 days (three back-to-backs), starting Friday in Charlotte. That stretch includes both of their remaining games against the Nets, a home-and-home back-to-back next Monday and Tuesday.

* Rest advantage = Didn’t play the day before. Opponent is playing the second game of a back-to-back.
Rest disadvantage = Playing the second game of a back-to-back. Opponent didn’t play the day before.

Through the break, teams are 149-91 (.621) in rest-advantage games, 87-60 (.592) at home and 62-31 (.667) on the road. Overall, that’s the best rest-advantage record of the last eight seasons. The road-rest-advantage record is the best in (at least) the last 25.

Here’s a full breakdown of the remaining schedules for all 15 Eastern Conference teams…

Eastern Conference breakdown, post-break schedules

B2B = Back-to-backs
RA, RDA = Rest-advantage, Rest-disadvantage games
OppPCT = Cumulative opponent winning percentage

> .500 = Games vs. the 15 teams currently over .500

OppO = Games against teams currently in the top 10 & bottom 10 in offensive efficiency

OppD = Games against teams currently in the top 10 & bottom 10 in defensive efficiency

RED = Toughest; BLUE = Easiest

Of course, the top eight aren’t the only East teams competing for something. The Charlotte Hornets (currently in ninth place), Atlanta Hawks (10th), Washington Wizards and New York Knicks all still have a shot at the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament. Here are some schedule notes on that group…

The Hawks‘ second-ranked offense has 10 remaining games (tied with Indiana and San Antonio for the most) against teams that currently rank in the bottom 10 defensively. That includes two games each against the Pacers and Pistons, part of a stretch (March 4-30) where they’re playing 11 of 14 against teams that currently have losing records. The Hawks’ post-break schedule begins with four games against the Bulls (x2), Raptors and Celtics. They’re 8-12 against the East’s top eight thus far.

The Hornets‘ six remaining rest-advantage games are tied (with the Pistons) for the most in the league. Five of those six (including one against the Knicks) are in a seven-game stretch from March 14-27.

The Knicks have the longest road trip – seven games from March 2-13 – for any team after the break, though they’ll be “home” for the last game (in Brooklyn). Their lone rest-advantage game left on the schedule is a home game (April 6) against the Nets.

The Wizards have one of the league’s easiest remaining schedules in regard to opponent strength, but are tied with the Raptors for the most back-to-backs (6) after the break. Two of those are part of a five-in-seven stretch from March 24-30. If this race for the last two Play-In spots is still competitive in the last week of the season, the Wiz will have a fun final three games: at Atlanta, vs. New York, at Charlotte.

The Phoenix Suns are running away with the top seed in the Western Conference, but there’s still a lot to play for below them. Here’s a breakdown of the remaining schedules in the West, with some notes on the 13 teams still competing for playoff or Play-In positioning…

Western Conference breakdown, post-break schedules

B2B = Back-to-backs
RA, RDA = Rest-advantage, Rest-disadvantage games
OppPCT = Cumulative opponent winning percentage

> .500 = Games vs. the 15 teams currently over .500

OppO = Games against teams currently in the top 10 & bottom 10 in offensive efficiency

OppD = Games against teams currently in the top 10 & bottom 10 in defensive efficiency

RED = Toughest; BLUE = Easiest

Western Conference notes…

The Mavs are tied (with the Kings) for the fewest back-to-backs left on their schedule. They have just two, and the second games of both are in Eastern Conference arenas (Charlotte and Cleveland). They have five games remaining within the top six in the West, and four of those five (including two games against the Warriors) are in the next two weeks.

The Nuggets have the worst record (4-10) in games played between the top six teams in the West. They have four games remaining within the group and all four (including two against the Warriors) are at home, where they’ll be for 15 of their 24 total post-break games. Those two games against Golden State are part of a stretch where they’re playing six games in nine days (March 4-12).

The Warriors have the league’s third-biggest home-road differential in regard to winning percentage (26-6 vs. 16-11) and its biggest in regard to point differential per 100 possessions (+11.6 vs. +1.2). Their post-break schedule is road-heavy, with 14 of their 23 games away from the Chase Center. That includes a trip of five games in seven days (March 22-28) that concludes with a rest-disadvantage game in Memphis. When they get back from that trip, they have two home games against the other teams (Phoenix and Utah) in the West’s top four.

The Clippers are the only team that’s played 61 games, so they have a league-low 21 left. They begin with four games against the Lakers and Rockets, and eight of their first nine are against teams currently below .500. Then they play eight straight games (March 14 – April 1) against teams that currently have winning records. The first of those games (at Cleveland) is the end of a stretch of five games in seven days.

The Lakers have the league’s biggest differential between their record at home (18-13, .581) and their record on the road (9-18, .333). And, in addition to having the West’s toughest post-break schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage (.538), 14 of their 24 games are on the road (though one of those is a “road” game against the Clippers). Their easiest remaining stretch is right out of the break, when they play six of their first eight games against teams currently below .500. That includes two big games against the Clippers, with the two L.A. teams currently in eighth and ninth place, tied in the loss column.

Among West teams, the Grizzlies have the most games remaining (10) against the East. They have only four games remaining within the top six in the West (they’re done playing the Mavs), and they’re all in the final two weeks of the season. They have a stretch of eight straight games (March 5-20) against teams that come out of the break with losing records, currently 23-9 against that group.

The Wolves‘ defense has allowed 10.0 fewer points per 100 possessions at home (104.7, third best) than it has on the road (114.7, fifth worst). That’s the league’s biggest home-road DefRtg differential by a wide margin. They have a home-heavy remaining schedule, with 13 of their 23 games at the Target Center. That includes six of their first eight games out of the break, though their first six are three of their four remaining back-to-backs.

The Pelicans weirdly have the league’s eighth toughest post-break schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage (.510) with the fewest games remaining (8) against the 15 teams that currently have winning records. That’s because five of those eight games are against the teams with the three best records: Phoenix (x2), Golden State and Memphis (x2). And only two of their 15 games against teams with losing records are against the bottom five. Those two games (vs. Orlando and Houston) are part of a four-game homestand (March 9-15). The Pels have six games remaining (two each – one home and one on the road) against the other three teams competing for the final Play-In spot in the West.

The Suns have had the most rest-advantage games in the league, and they’re 13-1 in those games. Going forward, they have the biggest discrepancy between rest-advantage games (1) and rest-disadvantage games (5). The one rest-advantage game (vs. Sacramento) is the last game of the season. The Suns have five games remaining within the top six in the West, a home game against Utah on Sunday and four road games in late March and early April. They’ll visit Golden State and Memphis (the first two games of a three-game trip) on March 30 and April 1.

The Blazers are tied (with the Warriors) for the most road-heavy remaining schedule, with 14 of their 23 games on the road. That includes a stretch where they’re playing nine of 10 on the road from March 2-21 and another five-game trip starting April 1. But only nine of their 23 games are against teams that currently have winning records. Weirdly, six of those nine are their first six games after the break. Then they’ll play 14 of 15 games against teams currently below .500 before ending their season with games against the Mavs and Jazz. Currently in the final Play-In spot, the Blazers have five games remaining against the teams chasing them, three against the Spurs and two against the Pelicans.

The Kings only have three games remaining against the other three teams they’re fighting for the final Play-In spot, and none of those are against the 10th-place Blazers, though Sacramento did win the season series. The first two of those three games – a back-to-back in New Orleans and San Antonio – are part of a five-game trip that begins Saturday in Denver. So by the end of next week, we’ll have a much better idea if the Kings have any shot at ending their 15-year playoff drought.

The Spurs‘ post-break schedule begins with the last three games of their rodeo trip, but they have the West’s longest post-break homestand, seven games from March 7-18. They’re tied (with the Pelicans) for the most West-heavy remaining schedule, with 18 of their 23 games (including each of their last 14) within the conference.

The Jazz‘s top-ranked offense has a league-high 12 games remaining against teams that currently rank in the top 10 defensively. That includes three games against the fifth-ranked Mavs and two each against the third-ranked Suns and eighth-ranked Thunder. The Jazz are the only Western Conference team with a post-break road trip of more than five games. They have a six-game, 10-day trip (March 20-29) that starts with a New York/Brooklyn back-to-back and ends in Los Angeles.

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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.

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